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In a morbid sort of way, the global recession and the US financial meltdown is probably the best thing that ever happened to the wireless sensor network community. The dire financial straits that the US got into forced the government to implement an economic stimulus package which is targeting key instrastructure industries, one of which is energy. One of the areas in the energy industry that is going to be improved is the US electrical grid which will be upgraded to a "smart grid" that can handle renewable energy, thus lessening the dependence on foreign energy sources and carbon-producing coal generators. Since renewable energy is notoriously spiky, the smart grid will need to implement demand response to help smooth out supply and demand issues on the grid. Implementing demand response requires that electrical meters be upgraded to "smart meters" that can communicate bi-directionally with demand response devices. And of course, one of the communication links to the demand response devices will be wireless, and most likely based on 802.15.4. So in a roundabout, chain-of-events, six-degrees-of-separation, butterfly-flapping-its-wing sort of way, the global financial crisis is probably the best thing that could have happened to 802.15.4 because now, there is a real, solid, high-volume application for it. Regardless of which protocol wins the meter sockets, all 802.15.4-based protocols stand to benefit from this turn of events. Before the financial crisis and all the hype about smart meters, 802.15.4 was pretty much just in the realm of academia and model rocketry circles The fact that there is a solid application for 802.15.4 can't be emphasized enough. Bluetooth was a dying protocol until some cell phone company decided that it would be kind of cool to try and make a headset connect to their phone wirelessly. Getting rid of that little black wire that hung out of your ear launched Bluetooth firmly on to the wireless map, and validated the business models of all the struggling Bluetooth companies (at least the ones that survived). It also ushered in a new era of people that look like they're talking to themselves. However the more important thing is that having a solid, high-volume application causes the price of chips to drop like a rock. As volume ramps, the incremental cost of a chip decreases, and for smart meter applications (assuming limited government bribery), the cost savings will be used to drive the chip prices lower to compete for the design wins. Although it's bad for the vendors, it's great for us! To continue the Bluetooth example…in 2000, Cambridge Silicon Radio's Bluecore 1 chipset cost about $8.50 in quantities of 1 million . In 2002, CSR's Bluecore 2 chipset cost about $6. And the price pretty much hovered around $5 until around 2004 when Bluetooth enabled cell phones started getting popular. Now, you can buy a Bluetooth chip in 1000-piece quantities from DigiKey for about $2. That means that the real price companies are paying for Bluetooth radios is probably close to $1. Now that 802.15.4 seems to have found it's one solid, volume application, it looks like the same pattern might happen. Currently, 802.15.4 radios can be found on DigiKey for about $2.50 in 100 piece quantities. If the smart grid upgrade and the smart metering programs work out as they're hyped to be, then it can easily drive the cost of 802.15.4 radios well under $1. In fact, if volumes are high enough and sustained, I think we can see $0.50 radios in a few years. At least with the help of some industrious, fabless semiconductor houses in Taiwan. So in a strange and twisty way, the wireless sensor network community should thank the global financial crisis because finally, we can have a low cost radio that will make wireless sensor networks very cheap to implement and the whole world can benefit from their efficiency improvements...and I can finally make a cheap, wireless dog feeder and become a millionaire... |
